Canada population decline, LNG exports to Asia, mortgage defaults March 22

As the global economic landscape continues to shift, understanding the evolving dynamics of Canada's economy is crucial for investors and homeowners alike. From the challenges posed by rising mortgage defaults to the burgeoning liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, this week’s analysis dives deep into significant developments that could shape the future of business in Canada.

Teck Resources and Barrick’s Gold Prospects

Teck Resources Ltd. holds a potentially lucrative royalty on Barrick Mining Corp.'s Fourmile gold project in Nevada, which could amount to billions of dollars. Insights from recent documents suggest that this financial arrangement may significantly influence Barrick's upcoming initial public offering (IPO) of its North American operations.

The only previously disclosed royalty related to Fourmile is a 1.6% gross smelter return, which is based on revenue rather than profit. This arrangement is held by Royal Gold Inc. Notably, the royalty agreement was established four years before Barrick made its significant discovery at the site, which has since become a legendary part of the company’s narrative.

In its early exploration efforts, Barrick faced repeated failures before finally achieving a successful drill result. This story underscores both the risks and rewards associated with resource exploration and investment in mining ventures.

Rising Defaults Among Homeowners

An alarming trend has emerged as homeowners with robust credit scores are increasingly defaulting on their mortgage payments. This shift highlights the broader implications of soaring mortgage rates, which are beginning to affect even traditionally low-risk borrowers.

According to data from Equifax Canada, homeowners with credit scores ranging from 621 to 680 have seen a significant rise in delinquency rates. Specifically, there has been a 31% increase in the number of these homeowners falling behind on their mortgage payments by at least 90 days from Q4 2024 to the same period in 2025.

• The average interest rate on five-year fixed-rate mortgages is currently between 3.6% and 4%.
• During the pandemic, rates were below 2%, contributing to a real estate boom.
• The highest delinquency rates are found in Toronto and Vancouver, along with cities like Brampton, Markham, and Oshawa.

This data reflects a troubling trend as many financially stable individuals face challenges they previously might have weathered without issue, indicating that the economic landscape is shifting dramatically.

Bank of Canada Holds Steady Amid Global Uncertainty

The Bank of Canada has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, responding to global economic pressures, particularly those stemming from rising oil prices. This decision comes in the wake of escalating energy costs, primarily due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The ongoing conflict has caused significant disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for oil transport, leading to fears of renewed inflationary pressure. Central bankers often find energy shocks challenging to navigate because they can dampen economic activity while simultaneously driving prices higher.

Experts agree that the trajectory of inflation will largely depend on the duration of the ongoing geopolitical strife and the extent of damage to energy production facilities in the affected regions.

Xanadu's Quest for Quantum Supremacy

Christian Weedbrook, CEO of Xanadu Quantum Technologies Inc., is determined to position his company at the forefront of the quantum computing race. Following setbacks in his initial aspirations to become a filmmaker, Weedbrook has now set his sights on leading Xanadu to become the first Canada-based tech firm to go public on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) since 2021.

Xanadu is competing with global tech giants such as Google and IBM to leverage the peculiarities of quantum physics in a way that could revolutionize computing. The potential applications of successful quantum computing technology include:

• Advanced economic forecasting
• Discovery of new materials
• Development of pharmaceuticals
• Enhancing cybersecurity measures against digital threats

As the demand for powerful computational capabilities grows, companies like Xanadu are racing to harness these revolutionary technologies, which could redefine industries across the board.

Surge in LNG Exports Amidst Global Supply Constraints

LNG Canada has significantly ramped up its exports to Asia, coinciding with tightening global supplies of liquefied natural gas due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This month alone, LNG Canada has exported 21 ships across the Pacific, a dramatic increase from just four in December.

While there have been production setbacks, the current export levels for March indicate that LNG Canada is on track to achieve approximately 85% of its full operational capacity by early spring. Comparatively, the export volume for the first quarter of this year is set to surpass the total from the initial six months of operation last year.

Historic Population Decline in Canada

In a significant demographic shift, Canada has reported its first annual population decline since records began in the 1940s, with more than 100,000 people leaving the country in 2025. This decline is largely attributed to government initiatives aimed at reducing the number of temporary residents.

At its peak in October 2024, Canada hosted over three million temporary residents, constituting 7.6% of the total population. This rapid influx has raised concerns regarding housing shortages and rising rents, particularly among younger demographics struggling with unemployment.

• The recent policy changes are designed to reduce temporary residents to 5% of the total population.
• The influx of temporary residents has contributed to a competitive labor market and housing pressures.
• Concerns about the sustainability of this population growth prompted the federal government to take action.

This unprecedented trend emphasizes the need for strategic planning and policies that address the needs of the Canadian population while maintaining a balanced economic environment.