Canada must be realistic about its relationship reset with China

As Canada reassesses its relationship with China, it becomes crucial to approach this diplomatic endeavor with realistic expectations. The historical context of their interactions and the current political landscape indicate that a pragmatic reset is necessary, rather than a return to the previously expansive ties that defined their relations.

Prime Minister Mark Carney's anticipated visit to China comes at a time when understanding the nuances of China's internal and external dynamics is more important than ever. The complexities of China's political environment, shaped by the leadership of Xi Jinping, require a careful diplomatic strategy from Canada.

Canada's relations with China: a pragmatic reset

When discussing the relationship between Canada and China, it is essential to recognize that expectations should be tempered. This upcoming diplomatic engagement is not likely to pave the way for a full reconciliation, but rather a cautious attempt to stabilize a situation marked by significant competition among global powers.

The key to this reset lies in a realistic appraisal of China's leadership style and its implications for international relations. As noted by experts in the field, such as Orville Schell, the behavior of China's government is deeply intertwined with the internal mechanisms of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi Jinping’s unique political upbringing, characterized by personal and political trauma, has instilled in him a belief that stability and power are paramount.

Xi’s formative experiences during the Cultural Revolution, where he faced significant personal and familial purges, have shaped his perspective on governance. This history is critical in understanding why the Chinese leadership prioritizes internal security and control over external appeasement. In this context, Canadian diplomacy must adjust to these realities to avoid misconceptions that could lead to diplomatic missteps.

What does Canada need from China?

Canada's objectives in its relationship with China should center on achieving a sense of predictability and stability. As the second-largest trading partner for Canada, albeit significantly trailing behind the United States, establishing a reliable framework for interactions is essential. The current trade dynamics reveal a lopsided advantage for China, with a trade ratio of approximately three to one favoring the latter.

The ongoing concerns regarding foreign interference further complicate this relationship. Reports identify China as the most significant actor in terms of foreign interference activities within Canada, while government officials have described it as the primary security threat. Here are some key priorities for Canada in this context:

• Stable access to essential exports, including agri-food, energy, and services.
• Minimization of sudden trade disruptions or retaliatory actions.
• Effective diplomatic channels to manage disputes proactively.
• Clear boundaries to protect Canadian sovereignty from external interference.

The overarching goal is to cultivate a relationship that remains functional despite inherent tensions.

What Canada cannot expect from China

While defining expectations for the relationship, it is equally important to identify what cannot be achieved. The idea of fostering political liberalization in China is unrealistic given the current political landscape. The long-held belief that economic engagement would lead to democratization has proven to be a flawed assumption. Under Xi's leadership, the Communist Party has intensified ideological control, expanded state surveillance, and centralized authority.

Furthermore, Canada will not likely succeed in persuading China to alter its stance on critical geopolitical issues, such as:

• The status of Taiwan.
• Claims in the South China Sea.
• China’s alliance with Russia.

These matters are deeply rooted in China's historical narrative and national pride, making public concessions politically unfeasible for Xi. Additionally, a comprehensive trade agreement that incorporates labor, gender, and environmental standards, while desirable, remains unattainable due to the constraints imposed by political and security dynamics.

Potential for stabilization in Canada-China relations

Despite the challenges, there are avenues for potential stabilization within the Canada-China relationship. Early indications from Prime Minister Carney's administration reflect a commitment to engaging China without falling into the trap of wishful thinking. Signs of this commitment include:

• Reopening high-level dialogues.
• Engaging with Chinese Premier Li Qiang at international forums.
• Plans for reciprocal visits to promote dialogue.

Stabilization could manifest in the form of clearer mechanisms for dispute resolution, a restoration of access for select agricultural products, and diminished regulatory pressures. Areas of cooperation on climate-related issues, such as:

• Methane reduction efforts.
• Clean energy standards.
• Biodiversity conservation.

could also emerge, provided they do not infringe on core security concerns.

Bolstering people-to-people ties

Enhancing connections between Canadian and Chinese citizens represents another realistic opportunity for progress. Fostering exchanges among students, researchers, and tourists not only diminishes misunderstandings but also builds constituencies that thrive on stable relations. Efforts to rebuild these ties, while ensuring academic independence and national security, could yield significant dividends.

If Canada successfully navigates this relationship, it will gain critical space for maneuvering in the international arena. This approach aligns with Carney’s broader agenda focused on economic security, emphasizing trade diversification, an industrial policy, and strategies for critical minerals. These are not merely protectionist measures; they serve as fundamental components for effective diplomacy.

Establishing guardrails for cooperation

As Canada moves forward, it is crucial to establish robust guardrails around cooperation with China. Areas of deep collaboration, especially in sensitive sectors such as:

• Artificial intelligence.
• Defense technology.
• Critical infrastructure.

pose considerable risks to national security and should be approached with caution.

If Prime Minister Carney's engagement yields modest outcomes—such as renewed dialogue, restored market access, and clearer diplomatic protocols—it should be viewed as a success. The alternative could lead to an environment fraught with unmanaged risks that can have significant implications on Canada's global standing.

China, under the leadership of Xi Jinping, is a powerful entity marked by pride and insecurity. Canada cannot alter this reality, but it can approach it with a disciplined, realistic, and resilient strategy: remaining open when possible, firm when necessary, and clear-eyed about the objectives of engagement. For a nation like Canada, this approach exemplifies effective statecraft.