Terry Glavin: Trump already views Russia as the war winner

The ongoing geopolitical tensions have brought to light a complex web of interactions and influences that challenge the established world order. The situation surrounding Russia's actions in Ukraine, alongside the responses from Western nations, raises critical questions about the efficacy of sanctions and the underlying motivations of key political figures, notably Donald Trump. This analysis delves into the intricate relationships and strategic decisions that are shaping global diplomacy today.

The shifting landscape of international relations

As 2025 draws to a close, the global political climate reflects a precarious equilibrium, characterized by the decline of what was once seen as a rules-based international order. The retreat of democratic ideals, particularly in the face of authoritarian advances from Russia and China, signals a troubling trend for the future of global governance.

The last decade has seen a marked increase in aggressive actions from nations that prioritize power over diplomacy. Countries in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Africa are experiencing a resurgence of authoritarianism, which poses significant challenges to democratic nations.

This shift can be traced back to several key events, including:

• The annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014
• The rise of populist leaders in Europe and the United States
• The increasing influence of state-controlled media

The European Union's struggle with Russian assets

In recent weeks, the European Union has faced significant hurdles in its attempts to leverage frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. Initial plans to utilize approximately $200 billion in immobilized funds for reparations fell through due to internal disagreements and external pressures.

Instead of securing these assets, EU member states opted to borrow around $105 billion to aid Ukraine, highlighting a shift in strategy amid ongoing Russian aggression. This decision was driven by:

• The need for immediate financial support for Ukraine
• Internal divisions within the EU regarding Russia
• Concerns over potential repercussions from Moscow

Key players in the EU's response to Russia

Leadership from prominent figures such as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has been crucial in navigating these tumultuous waters. Their efforts to invoke Article 122 of the EU Treaties have ensured that Russian assets remain frozen indefinitely, circumventing the paralysis caused by states sympathetic to Russia.

This move marks a significant shift in EU policy, allowing for a more unified approach to dealing with Russian aggression. Furthermore, it indicates a potential long-term strategy to ensure that Russia is held accountable for its actions, provided that the political landscape remains stable.

Trump's complex dealings with Russia

The influence of former President Donald Trump on U.S.-Russia relations cannot be understated. His administration’s approach has sparked intense debate and controversy, particularly regarding the nature of American support for Ukraine. Recent reports suggest that Trump has been engaged in deal-making with Russian officials, raising questions about his administration's objectives.

Key elements of Trump’s strategy include:

• Negotiating “peace talks” that could facilitate business opportunities for American corporations in Russia.
• Collaborating with key figures in the Trump administration, such as Steve Witkoff, who has deep ties to both the Gulf states and Russia.
• Cutting off funding to Ukraine and conditioning further U.S. support on providing American investors preferential access to Ukrainian resources.

The consequences of Trump's approach

The ramifications of Trump’s dealings are profound. As the U.S. navigates its complex relationship with Russia, the prospects for Ukraine's sovereignty become increasingly uncertain. Trump's willingness to lift sanctions and engage in discussions with Russian oligarchs signals a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy that could favor Moscow.

Furthermore, reports indicate that American companies are exploring opportunities in Russia, even as the European Parliament pushes for sanctions against the Russian energy sector. This situation presents a dichotomy where U.S. interests may conflict with broader Western goals of isolating Russia.

The internal dynamics of Russian influence

Compounding these challenges are reports of Russian interference and manipulation within European institutions. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever has claimed that he faced direct threats from Moscow regarding the handling of Russian assets, illustrating the lengths to which Russia will go to maintain its interests in Europe.

This environment of intimidation has fostered a culture of compliance among some EU member states, hindering collective action against Russia. Additionally, investigations have surfaced detailing connections between Russian officials and European financial institutions, further complicating the EU's response to the conflict.

Looking ahead: Navigating a fractured landscape

The current geopolitical landscape is fraught with uncertainty. The interplay between authoritarian regimes and democratic governance will continue to shape international relations in the coming years. As global powers jockey for position, the implications for national sovereignty and democratic ideals are profound.

In light of these developments, it is essential for democratic nations to reinforce their alliances and strategies in order to counteract the influence of authoritarianism. This may include:

• Strengthening economic sanctions against hostile nations.
• Enhancing military support for vulnerable democracies.
• Promoting democratic values and open dialogue among allies.

The path forward is undoubtedly complex, but the need for a cohesive and resolute approach to countering authoritarianism has never been more pressing. The actions of key players, both in the U.S. and abroad, will be critical in determining the fate of democracy on the global stage.