Amber Kanwar's Weekly Setup for Shopify, Bombardier and Canadian Lifeco Earnings

The Canadian winter can be quite challenging, especially when frigid Arctic blasts make it feel like temperatures are plummeting to -40 degrees Celsius. However, there’s a silver lining: the days are getting longer, with the sun setting 37 minutes later than just a month ago. With February being a short month, many are already looking forward to March Break, as it feels like spring is just around the corner.

As the earnings season approaches, a flurry of reports is anticipated. This week, a remarkable 48 companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange are set to release their financial results, alongside 79 firms from the S&P 500. Let’s delve into the key players to keep an eye on this week.

Shopify's earnings report and market performance

Shopify (SHOP-T) is gearing up to report its earnings on Wednesday morning, and the company finds itself amidst a turbulent period in the software sector. A wave of investor anxiety has led to a significant sell-off of software stocks, spurred by concerns that emerging AI technologies may overshadow their current offerings. Notably, the S&P 500 Software Index has dropped nearly 30% in just four months, and Shopify has fared worse, with a decline of 40% during the same timeframe.

Despite these challenges, expectations for Shopify’s growth remain optimistic. Analysts predict that the company will achieve a remarkable 28% growth in revenue and a 50% increase in earnings per share. CIBC Capital Markets analyst Todd Coupland believes that Shopify's outlook may surpass expectations, driven by a surge in web traffic for Shopify Plus and Plus fashion merchants during the fourth quarter and January. While the primary concern remains the perceived high valuation of Shopify, Coupland argues that this is justified due to its potential for "higher durable profit growth and lower tariff risks."

Canadian life insurance companies in the spotlight

This week, several key Canadian life insurance companies, including Sun Life (SLF-T), Manulife (MFC-T), and Great-West Life (GWO-T), are scheduled to report their financial results. The life insurance sector has struggled, lagging behind both financial services and the S&P/TSX Composite Index throughout 2025. Sun Life, in particular, has faced hurdles with its U.S. health-care insurance program, incurring high-cost medical claims that investors hope are now resolved.

National Bank analyst Gabriel Dechaine has indicated that a turnaround in Sun Life's U.S. Group businesses could significantly enhance performance across the sector. With an increase in share buybacks recently, a significant expansion of its buyback program—potentially amounting to 4% of outstanding shares—could serve as a positive catalyst for its stock.

Fast food giants prepare for quarterly results

This week, fast-food heavyweights McDonald’s (MCD-N) and Burger King are also set to unveil their quarterly results. McDonald’s has recently achieved a record high in stock value, and its collaboration with the popular Grinch character may have bolstered fourth-quarter sales. Stifel analyst Chris O’Cull emphasizes that investors will be keen to assess whether this momentum can be sustained.

Similarly, Restaurant Brands International (QSR-T), the parent company of Tim Hortons and Burger King, is expected to report on Thursday morning. The partnership with SpongeBob for Burger King could yield favorable results, while Tim Hortons is experiencing success through innovations in its afternoon meal offerings and improvements in its cold beverage execution.

Bombardier’s financial outlook amid trade tensions

Bombardier (BBD-B-T) is set to report on Thursday morning, and its performance could reflect the ongoing trade tensions between Canada and the United States. The company has been in the spotlight after former President Donald Trump threatened to decertify Bombardier jets and impose a 50% tariff, citing Canada's delay in certifying General Dynamics’ Gulfstream. Following the initial drop in stock value due to these threats, Bombardier has since recovered, largely due to the low likelihood of these tariffs being enacted.

According to National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen, Bombardier possesses several favorable conditions that could enhance its prospects. He remains optimistic about Bombardier shares, highlighting strong demand in the business jet market and positive momentum from its defense sector.

Job market data and its implications

On Wednesday morning, delayed job data from the U.S. for January will be released, with economists projecting a net gain of 70,000 new jobs, a significant rise from December’s 50,000. However, recent data suggests a concerning trend of weakening in the labor market. Layoff announcements have reached their highest level for any January since 2009, job openings have declined for three consecutive months, and the number of jobless claims has spiked.

BMO chief U.S. economist Scott Anderson warns that these indicators reveal a troubling disconnect between economic growth and job creation, potentially leading to a market-moving January Employment Report that may underperform expectations.

For those interested in insights about the financial market, tune into "In the Money with Amber Kanwar," Canada’s leading investing podcast. New episodes are released every Tuesday and Thursday. Don't miss out on the latest trends by subscribing now!